Portugalete vs Real Unión: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Portugalete the pick at 48% for Portugalete vs Real Unión. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Portugalete host Real Unión on 4 November 2026 at Estadio La Florida, Portugalete. Portugalete are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This round of 128 fixture in Copa del Rey is listed as Portugalete - Real Unión. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Portugalete: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored six and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Real Unión: they come in on the back of a win, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored seven and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Portugalete | Real Unión |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWLL | WDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Portugalete's way at 49%.
The call
The model tilts to Portugalete at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Portugalete's way, especially at Estadio La Florida.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Portugalete or Real Unión?
Portugalete, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Portugalete, 21% the draw and 31% Real Unión.
When and where is Portugalete vs Real Unión being played?
4 November 2026 at Estadio La Florida, Portugalete, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Have Portugalete and Real Unión met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Portugalete and Real Unión?
Portugalete have taken 5 points from their last five (DDWLL), Real Unión 6 from theirs (WDDDL). Most recently Portugalete took a 2-2 draw away at Basconia and Real Unión a 4-1 win at home to Lugo.
How many goals are expected in Portugalete vs Real Unión?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Portugalete and 1.35 for Real Unión. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.