Canada vs Guatemala: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Canada the pick at 73% for Canada vs Guatemala. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Guatemala travel to Canada on 17 November 2026 at BMO Field. Canada are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 73%. This quarter finals fixture in CONCACAF Nations League is listed as Canada - Guatemala. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Canada: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Guatemala: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those four they scored nine and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Canada | Guatemala |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLW | WDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 4 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 73% | 10% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 44%.
- First goal: Leans Canada's way at 68%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Canada at 73%, a gap of 56 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Canada's way, especially at BMO Field.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Canada or Guatemala?
Canada, with an implied win probability of roughly 73%. The full split is 73% Canada, 17% the draw and 10% Guatemala.
When and where is Canada vs Guatemala being played?
17 November 2026 at BMO Field, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
Have Canada and Guatemala met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Canada and Guatemala?
Canada have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWLW), Guatemala 7 from theirs (WDWL). Most recently Canada took a 0-1 defeat away at USA and Guatemala a 1-0 win at home to Suriname.
How many goals are expected in Canada vs Guatemala?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 2.00 for Canada and 0.00 for Guatemala. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 44%, so its call is no.