Mexico vs Jamaica: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Mexico the pick at 64% for Mexico vs Jamaica. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Mexico host Jamaica on 18 November 2026 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. Mexico are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This quarter finals fixture in CONCACAF Nations League is listed as Mexico - Jamaica. Kick-off is 02:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Mexico: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Jamaica: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Mexico | Jamaica |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDDL | DWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 10 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 13% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.60, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Mexico's way at 65%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Mexico at 64%, a gap of 42 percentage points to the next outcome. Jamaica's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Mexico's way, especially at Estadio BBVA.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mexico or Jamaica?
Mexico, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Mexico, 22% the draw and 13% Jamaica.
When and where is Mexico vs Jamaica being played?
18 November 2026 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey, kick-off 02:30 UTC.
Have Mexico and Jamaica met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mexico and Jamaica?
Mexico have taken 2 points from their last five (LLDDL), Jamaica 8 from theirs (DWLWD). Most recently Mexico took a 0-2 defeat at home to Chile and Jamaica a 1-1 draw away at Honduras.
How many goals are expected in Mexico vs Jamaica?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.60 — 2.60 for Mexico and 2.00 for Jamaica. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.