USA vs Haiti — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes USA the pick at 60% for USA vs Haiti. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
USA host Haiti on 18 November 2026 at TQL Stadium. USA are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This quarter finals fixture in CONCACAF Nations League is listed as USA - Haiti. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
USA: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored 13 and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Haiti: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded nine, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | USA | Haiti |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | LWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 7 | 11 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 60% | 19% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans USA's way at 59%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards USA at 60%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts USA's way, especially at TQL Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: USA or Haiti?
USA, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 60% USA, 21% the draw and 19% Haiti.
When and where is USA vs Haiti being played?
18 November 2026 at TQL Stadium, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Have USA and Haiti met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of USA and Haiti?
USA have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Haiti 9 from theirs (LWWWL). Most recently USA took a 1-0 win at home to Canada and Haiti a 0-2 defeat away at Costa Rica.
How many goals are expected in USA vs Haiti?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.20 for USA and 1.40 for Haiti. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.