Guabirá vs Bolívar: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Bolívar the pick at 48% for Guabirá vs Bolívar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bolívar travel to Guabirá on 1 November 2026 at Estadio Gilberto Parada, Montero. Bolívar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This apertura 24 fixture in Primera División is listed as Guabirá - Bolívar. Kick-off is 21:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Guabirá: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored six and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.1 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -13.
Bolívar: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 83.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +35.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Guabirá | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -13 | +35 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWW | WLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 10 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.1 | 83.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 48% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Guabirá 35.1 versus Bolívar 83.8, a gap of 48.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Bolívar's way at 49%.
The call
The model tilts to Bolívar at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Bolívar's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Guabirá or Bolívar?
Bolívar, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 31% Guabirá, 21% the draw and 48% Bolívar.
When and where is Guabirá vs Bolívar being played?
1 November 2026 at Estadio Gilberto Parada, Montero, kick-off 21:15 UTC.
Have Guabirá and Bolívar met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Guabirá and Bolívar?
Guabirá have taken 7 points from their last five (LDLWW), Bolívar 10 from theirs (WLWWD). Most recently Guabirá took a 0-3 defeat away at Nacional Potosí and Bolívar a 2-1 win at home to Universitario de Vinto.
How many goals are expected in Guabirá vs Bolívar?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 0.50 for Guabirá and 2.20 for Bolívar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.