Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Defensor Sporting face Racing Montevideo on 24 October 2026 at Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. Racing Montevideo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This clausura 12 fixture in Primera División is listed as Defensor Sporting - Racing Montevideo. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Defensor Sporting: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.5 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -10.
Racing Montevideo: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +12.
Side by side
| Statistic | Defensor Sporting | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -10 | +12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | WLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 4 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.5 | 41.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 38% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Defensor Sporting 32.5 versus Racing Montevideo 41.3, a gap of 8.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: Over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Defensor Sporting's way at 47%.
The call
The model does not commit. Racing Montevideo is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Defensor Sporting or Racing Montevideo?
Racing Montevideo, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 37% Defensor Sporting, 25% the draw and 38% Racing Montevideo.
When and where is Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo?
Defensor Sporting have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Racing Montevideo 4 from theirs (WLLLD). Most recently Defensor Sporting took a 0-1 defeat away at Boston River and Racing Montevideo a 3-0 win at home to Wanderers.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo?
It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.