Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio match summary and prediction — Primera División
Our model makes Deportivo Maldonado the pick at 44% for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Maldonado face Danubio on 24 October 2026 at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado. Deportivo Maldonado are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This clausura 12 fixture in Primera División is listed as Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio. Kick-off is 22:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Deportivo Maldonado: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +21.
Danubio: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | Deportivo Maldonado | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 15th |
| Goal difference | +21 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWW | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 5 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.6 | 44.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportivo Maldonado 63.6 versus Danubio 44.8, a gap of 18.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.35, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Deportivo Maldonado's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Deportivo Maldonado at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Deportivo Maldonado's way, especially at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportivo Maldonado or Danubio?
Deportivo Maldonado, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Deportivo Maldonado, 28% the draw and 28% Danubio.
When and where is Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
Have Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio?
Deportivo Maldonado have taken 10 points from their last five (LWDWW), Danubio 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Deportivo Maldonado took a 2-3 defeat away at Club Nacional and Danubio a 1-0 win at home to Central Espanol.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.35 — 1.35 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.00 for Danubio. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.