Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Burton Albion the pick at 60% for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Burton Albion face AFC Rushden & Diamonds on 7 November 2026 at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent. Burton Albion are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This 1/128 finals fixture in FA Cup is listed as Burton Albion - AFC Rushden & Diamonds. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Burton Albion: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Burton Albion | AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDL | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 11 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 60% | 22% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.55, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Burton Albion's way at 62%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Burton Albion at 60%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Burton Albion's way, especially at Pirelli Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burton Albion or AFC Rushden & Diamonds?
Burton Albion, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 60% Burton Albion, 18% the draw and 22% AFC Rushden & Diamonds.
When and where is Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds being played?
7 November 2026 at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds?
Burton Albion have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDDL), AFC Rushden & Diamonds 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently Burton Albion took a 0-2 defeat away at Wycombe and AFC Rushden & Diamonds a 2-1 win at home to Morecambe.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.55 — 1.20 for Burton Albion and 1.35 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.