Oxford United vs Stevenage match summary and prediction — FA Cup
Our model makes Oxford United the pick at 47% for Oxford United vs Stevenage. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Stevenage travel to Oxford United on 7 November 2026 at Kassam Stadium, Oxford. Oxford United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This 1/128 finals fixture in FA Cup is listed as Oxford United - Stevenage. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Oxford United: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 6 conceded in seven matches, 1.43 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Stevenage: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.83 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Oxford United | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWD | DLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.43 / 0.86 | 1.83 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.57 | 1.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Oxford United's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Oxford United at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Oxford United's way, especially at Kassam Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Oxford United or Stevenage?
Oxford United, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Oxford United, 26% the draw and 27% Stevenage.
When and where is Oxford United vs Stevenage being played?
7 November 2026 at Kassam Stadium, Oxford, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Oxford United and Stevenage met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Oxford United and Stevenage?
Oxford United have taken 9 points from their last five (DWDWD), Stevenage 7 from theirs (DLWLW). Most recently Oxford United took a 1-1 draw away at Barnsley and Stevenage a 2-2 draw away at Leicester.
How many goals are expected in Oxford United vs Stevenage?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.80 for Oxford United and 1.80 for Stevenage. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.