York vs Northampton: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes York the pick at 59% for York vs Northampton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Northampton travel to York on 7 November 2026 at York Community Stadium, York. York are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This 1/128 finals fixture in FA Cup is listed as York - Northampton. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
York: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 17 conceded in eight matches, 1.62 and 2.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Northampton: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 5 conceded in six matches, 0.83 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | York | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWDD | DWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 6 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.62 / 2.12 | 0.83 / 0.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.88 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans York's way at 62%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards York at 59%, a gap of 38 percentage points to the next outcome. Northampton's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts York's way, especially at York Community Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: York or Northampton?
York, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% York, 21% the draw and 20% Northampton.
When and where is York vs Northampton being played?
7 November 2026 at York Community Stadium, York, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have York and Northampton met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of York and Northampton?
York have taken 5 points from their last five (LLWDD), Northampton 8 from theirs (DWLWD). Most recently York took a 2-5 defeat away at Grimsby and Northampton a 1-1 draw away at Accrington ST.
How many goals are expected in York vs Northampton?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for York and 1.00 for Northampton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.