Penarol vs Wanderers — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Penarol the pick at 41% for Penarol vs Wanderers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Penarol host Wanderers on 31 October 2026 at Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo. Penarol are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This clausura 13 fixture in Primera División is listed as Penarol - Wanderers. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Penarol: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored two and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +24.
Wanderers: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded nine, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.5 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Penarol | Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 7th |
| Goal difference | +24 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLDW | LLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 4 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.0 | 44.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Penarol 51.0 versus Wanderers 44.5, a gap of 6.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.40, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Penarol's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Penarol at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Penarol's way, especially at Campeón del Siglo.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Penarol or Wanderers?
Penarol, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Penarol, 32% the draw and 27% Wanderers.
When and where is Penarol vs Wanderers being played?
31 October 2026 at Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have Penarol and Wanderers met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Penarol and Wanderers?
Penarol have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLDW), Wanderers 4 from theirs (LLLDW). Most recently Penarol took a 0-2 defeat at home to Atletico Torque and Wanderers a 0-1 defeat at home to Progreso.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Wanderers?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.40 — 0.40 for Penarol and 0.00 for Wanderers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.