Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Progreso the pick at 48% for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Progreso face Defensor Sporting on 1 November 2026 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. Progreso are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This clausura 13 fixture in Primera División is listed as Progreso - Defensor Sporting. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Progreso: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored eight and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.3 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -16.
Defensor Sporting: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored seven and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Progreso | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -16 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLW | DLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 7 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 54.3 | 35.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 21% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Progreso 54.3 versus Defensor Sporting 35.8, a gap of 18.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Progreso's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to Progreso at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Progreso's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Progreso's way, especially at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Progreso or Defensor Sporting?
Progreso, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Progreso, 31% the draw and 21% Defensor Sporting.
When and where is Progreso vs Defensor Sporting being played?
1 November 2026 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Progreso and Defensor Sporting met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Progreso and Defensor Sporting?
Progreso have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDLW), Defensor Sporting 1 from theirs (DLLLL). Most recently Progreso took a 1-0 win away at Wanderers and Defensor Sporting a 3-3 draw at home to Racing Montevideo.
How many goals are expected in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.00 for Progreso and 1.50 for Defensor Sporting. It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.