Danubio vs Club Nacional — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Danubio the pick at 40% for Danubio vs Club Nacional. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Danubio host Club Nacional on 1 November 2026. Danubio are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This clausura 13 fixture in Primera División is listed as Danubio - Club Nacional. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Danubio: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -15.
Club Nacional: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Danubio | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -15 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWL | LWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 3 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.2 | 67.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Danubio 41.2 versus Club Nacional 67.5, a gap of 26.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams to score at 44%.
- First goal: Leans Danubio's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Danubio at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Danubio or Club Nacional?
Danubio, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Danubio, 32% the draw and 27% Club Nacional.
When and where is Danubio vs Club Nacional being played?
1 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have Danubio and Club Nacional met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Danubio and Club Nacional?
Danubio have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWWL), Club Nacional 12 from theirs (LWWWW). Most recently Danubio took a 3-0 win away at Wanderers Durazno and Club Nacional a 0-1 defeat at home to Liverpool Montevideo.
How many goals are expected in Danubio vs Club Nacional?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 1.00 for Danubio and 0.60 for Club Nacional. It rates over 2.5 goals at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 44%, so its call is no.