Uzbekistan vs Russia — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Russia the pick at 60% for Uzbekistan vs Russia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Russia travel to Uzbekistan on 12 November 2026 at Pakhtakor Central Stadium, Tashkent. Russia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Uzbekistan - Russia. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Uzbekistan: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded twelve, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Russia: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 17 and conceded three, with four clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Uzbekistan | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLL | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 12 | 17 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 16% | 60% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.55, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Russia's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Russia at 60%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Uzbekistan or Russia?
Russia, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 16% Uzbekistan, 23% the draw and 60% Russia.
When and where is Uzbekistan vs Russia being played?
12 November 2026 at Pakhtakor Central Stadium, Tashkent, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Uzbekistan and Russia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Uzbekistan and Russia?
Uzbekistan have taken 6 points from their last five (LWWLL), Russia 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently Uzbekistan took a 0-2 defeat away at South Korea and Russia a 3-3 draw at home to Nigeria.
How many goals are expected in Uzbekistan vs Russia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.55 — 0.75 for Uzbekistan and 1.80 for Russia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.