Ecuador vs Costa Rica — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Ecuador the pick at 70% for Ecuador vs Costa Rica. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Ecuador face Costa Rica on 14 November 2026. Ecuador are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Ecuador - Costa Rica. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Ecuador: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Costa Rica: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded nine, with two clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ecuador | Costa Rica |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLW | WWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 11% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Ecuador's way at 68%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Ecuador at 70%, a gap of 52 percentage points to the next outcome. Costa Rica's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ecuador or Costa Rica?
Ecuador, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% Ecuador, 18% the draw and 11% Costa Rica.
When and where is Ecuador vs Costa Rica being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Have Ecuador and Costa Rica met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ecuador and Costa Rica?
Ecuador have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLLW), Costa Rica 6 from theirs (WWLLL). Most recently Ecuador took a 1-1 draw at home to Panama and Costa Rica a 2-0 win at home to Haiti.
How many goals are expected in Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Ecuador and 1.00 for Costa Rica. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.