China vs Bahrain — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes China the pick at 52% for China vs Bahrain. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bahrain travel to China on 17 November 2026 at Tianhe Stadium, Guangzhou. China are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as China - Bahrain. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
China: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and three defeats from the last four, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored three and conceded nine, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Bahrain: they come in on four defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and four defeats from the last four, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored two and conceded twelve, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | China | Bahrain |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLW | LLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 9 | 2 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 20% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.35, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans China's way at 61%.
The call
The model tilts to China at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts China's way, especially at Tianhe Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: China or Bahrain?
China, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% China, 28% the draw and 20% Bahrain.
When and where is China vs Bahrain being played?
17 November 2026 at Tianhe Stadium, Guangzhou, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have China and Bahrain met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of China and Bahrain?
China have taken 3 points from their last four (LLLW), Bahrain 0 from theirs (LLLL). Most recently China took a 0-1 defeat at home to Tajikistan and Bahrain a 2-5 defeat at home to Yemen.
How many goals are expected in China vs Bahrain?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.35 — 1.00 for China and 1.35 for Bahrain. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.