Argentina vs Costa Rica: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Argentina the pick at 80% for Argentina vs Costa Rica. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Argentina face Costa Rica on 17 November 2026 at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, Cordoba. Argentina are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 80%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Argentina - Costa Rica. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Argentina: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored 16 and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Costa Rica: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded nine, with two clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Argentina | Costa Rica |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | WWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 16 / 2 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 80% | 6% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Argentina's way at 77%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Argentina at 80%, a gap of 65 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Argentina's way, especially at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Argentina or Costa Rica?
Argentina, with an implied win probability of roughly 80%. The full split is 80% Argentina, 15% the draw and 6% Costa Rica.
When and where is Argentina vs Costa Rica being played?
17 November 2026 at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, Cordoba, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Have Argentina and Costa Rica met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Argentina and Costa Rica?
Argentina have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), Costa Rica 6 from theirs (WWLLL). Most recently Argentina took a 3-0 win at home to Benin and Costa Rica a 2-0 win at home to Haiti.
How many goals are expected in Argentina vs Costa Rica?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.20 for Argentina and 1.00 for Costa Rica. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.