Ecuador vs Bolivia: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Ecuador the pick at 59% for Ecuador vs Bolivia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bolivia travel to Ecuador on 17 November 2026. Ecuador are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Ecuador - Bolivia. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ecuador: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Bolivia: they come in on four defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and four defeats from the last four, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored no and conceded 14, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ecuador | Bolivia |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLW | LLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 0 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 17% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Ecuador's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Ecuador at 59%, a gap of 35 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ecuador or Bolivia?
Ecuador, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Ecuador, 24% the draw and 17% Bolivia.
When and where is Ecuador vs Bolivia being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Have Ecuador and Bolivia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ecuador and Bolivia?
Ecuador have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLLW), Bolivia 0 from theirs (LLLL). Most recently Ecuador took a 1-1 draw at home to Panama and Bolivia a 0-4 defeat away at Argentina.
How many goals are expected in Ecuador vs Bolivia?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for Ecuador and 0.00 for Bolivia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.