Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Gwangju FC host Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 31 October 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju. Gwangju FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This relegation group 34 fixture in K League 1 is listed as Gwangju FC - Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Kick-off is 07:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Gwangju FC: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded nine, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -39.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored seven and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -39 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWDD | LDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 9 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.9 | 39.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Gwangju FC 41.9 versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39.7, a gap of 2.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Gwangju FC's way at 44%.
The call
The model does not commit. Gwangju FC is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. Gwangju FC's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Gwangju FC's way, especially at Gwangju Football Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gwangju FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gwangju FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Gwangju FC, 33% the draw and 31% Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
When and where is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
31 October 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju, kick-off 07:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gwangju FC on 06 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gwangju FC have taken 8 points from their last five (WLWDD), Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5 from theirs (LDLWD). Most recently Gwangju FC took a 3-0 win away at Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 1-2 defeat at home to Daejeon Citizen.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.60 for Gwangju FC and 1.40 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.