Atlético Ottawa vs Forge — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Atlético Ottawa and Forge on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Forge travel to Atlético Ottawa on 1 November 2026 at TD Place Stadium. Forge are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This semi finals fixture in Canadian Premier League is listed as Atlético Ottawa - Forge. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Atlético Ottawa: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Forge: they come in on two successive draws, following three wins before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.4 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +27.
Side by side
| Statistic | Atlético Ottawa | Forge |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -3 | +27 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWW | DDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 12 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 54.2 | 68.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 35% | 36% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Atlético Ottawa 54.2 versus Forge 68.4, a gap of 14.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Atlético Ottawa's way at 47%.
The call
The model does not commit. Forge is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. Forge's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atlético Ottawa or Forge?
Forge, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 35% Atlético Ottawa, 28% the draw and 36% Forge.
When and where is Atlético Ottawa vs Forge being played?
1 November 2026 at TD Place Stadium, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atlético Ottawa and Forge?
Forge 3-0 Atlético Ottawa on 12 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Atlético Ottawa and Forge?
Atlético Ottawa have taken 9 points from their last five (LLWWW), Forge 11 from theirs (DDWWW). Most recently Atlético Ottawa took a 1-2 defeat away at York United and Forge a 1-1 draw away at Pacific FC.
How many goals are expected in Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.20 for Atlético Ottawa and 1.20 for Forge. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.