Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Supra du Quebec the pick at 44% for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Cavalry FC travel to Supra du Quebec on 1 November 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium. Supra du Quebec are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This semi finals fixture in Canadian Premier League is listed as Supra du Quebec - Cavalry FC. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Supra du Quebec: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 16 and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.6 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -3.
Cavalry FC: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +35.
Side by side
| Statistic | Supra du Quebec | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -3 | +35 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWW | WWDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 16 / 6 | 10 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 67.6 | 57.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 34% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Supra du Quebec 67.6 versus Cavalry FC 57.1, a gap of 10.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.67, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Supra du Quebec's way at 57%.
The call
The model edges towards Supra du Quebec at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Supra du Quebec's way, especially at CEPSUM Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Supra du Quebec or Cavalry FC?
Supra du Quebec, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Supra du Quebec, 23% the draw and 34% Cavalry FC.
When and where is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC being played?
1 November 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
Have Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
Supra du Quebec have taken 13 points from their last five (WWDWW), Cavalry FC 7 from theirs (WWDLL). Most recently Supra du Quebec took a 4-3 win away at HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC a 1-0 win at home to Vancouver FC.
How many goals are expected in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.67 — 2.00 for Supra du Quebec and 1.67 for Cavalry FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.