Forge vs Atlético Ottawa: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Forge the pick at 53% for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Forge face Atlético Ottawa on 7 November 2026 at Tim Hortons Field. Forge are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This semi finals fixture in Canadian Premier League is listed as Forge - Atlético Ottawa. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Forge: they come in on three successive draws, following two wins before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 8 conceded in six matches, 1.33 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.4 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +27.
Atlético Ottawa: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (3 scored and 14 conceded in six matches, 0.5 and 2.33 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.6 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Forge | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +27 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDWW | DLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 5 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.33 / 1.33 | 0.5 / 2.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 68.4 | 47.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 20% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Forge one win, Atlético Ottawa none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Atlético Ottawa 2-2 Forge on 01 November 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Forge 68.4 versus Atlético Ottawa 47.6, a gap of 20.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Forge's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Forge at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Forge's way, especially at Tim Hortons Field.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Forge or Atlético Ottawa?
Forge, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Forge, 26% the draw and 20% Atlético Ottawa.
When and where is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
7 November 2026 at Tim Hortons Field, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa 2-2 Forge on 01 November 2026.
What is the recent form of Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
Forge have taken 9 points from their last five (DDDWW), Atlético Ottawa 7 from theirs (DLLWW). Most recently Forge took a 2-2 draw away at Atlético Ottawa and Atlético Ottawa a 2-2 draw at home to Forge.
How many goals are expected in Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.60 for Forge and 0.60 for Atlético Ottawa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.