Balma vs Castanet: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Balma the pick at 46% for Balma vs Castanet. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Balma face Castanet on 14 November 2026. Balma are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This 1/128 finals fixture in Coupe de France is listed as Balma - Castanet. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Balma: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Castanet: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Balma | Castanet |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWW | DLWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 9 | 4 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 31% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Balma's way at 51%.
The call
The model tilts to Balma at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Balma or Castanet?
Balma, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Balma, 23% the draw and 31% Castanet.
When and where is Balma vs Castanet being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Have Balma and Castanet met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Balma and Castanet?
Balma have taken 9 points from their last five (LLWWW), Castanet 4 from theirs (DLWLL). Most recently Balma took a 1-2 defeat away at Beziers and Castanet a 1-1 draw at home to Toulouse II.
How many goals are expected in Balma vs Castanet?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Balma and 1.35 for Castanet. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.