Choisy au Bac vs Caen — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Choisy au Bac the pick at 46% for Choisy au Bac vs Caen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Choisy au Bac face Caen on 14 November 2026. Choisy au Bac are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This 1/128 finals fixture in Coupe de France is listed as Choisy au Bac - Caen. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Choisy au Bac: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and two defeats from the last three, worth 3 points. Across those three they scored three and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Caen: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Choisy au Bac | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLW | WDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 5 | 10 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Choisy au Bac's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Choisy au Bac at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Caen's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Choisy au Bac or Caen?
Choisy au Bac, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Choisy au Bac, 23% the draw and 31% Caen.
When and where is Choisy au Bac vs Caen being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Choisy au Bac and Caen met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Choisy au Bac and Caen?
Choisy au Bac have taken 3 points from their last three (LLW), Caen 10 from theirs (WDWLW). Most recently Choisy au Bac took a 1-2 defeat away at JS Douvres and Caen a 1-0 win at home to Versailles.
How many goals are expected in Choisy au Bac vs Caen?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Choisy au Bac and 1.35 for Caen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.