Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Tefana the pick at 46% for Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Tefana face Thionville Lusitanos on 14 November 2026 at Stade Louis Ganivet, Faaa. Tefana are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This 1/128 finals fixture in Coupe de France is listed as Tefana - Thionville Lusitanos. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Tefana: they come in on three successive draws, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored eight and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Thionville Lusitanos: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Tefana | Thionville Lusitanos |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDLD | WDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 31% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Tefana's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Tefana at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Tefana's way, especially at Stade Louis Ganivet.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tefana or Thionville Lusitanos?
Tefana, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Tefana, 23% the draw and 31% Thionville Lusitanos.
When and where is Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos being played?
14 November 2026 at Stade Louis Ganivet, Faaa, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Tefana and Thionville Lusitanos met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Tefana and Thionville Lusitanos?
Tefana have taken 4 points from their last five (DDDLD), Thionville Lusitanos 4 from theirs (WDLLL). Most recently Tefana took a 1-1 draw at home to Pirae and Thionville Lusitanos a 1-0 win at home to Cannes.
How many goals are expected in Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Tefana and 1.35 for Thionville Lusitanos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.