Piratas vs Cancún match summary and prediction — Liga de Expansión MX
Our model makes Piratas the pick at 47% for Piratas vs Cancún. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Piratas host Cancún on 9 November 2026. Piratas are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This quarter finals fixture in Liga de Expansión MX is listed as Piratas - Cancún. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Piratas: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored 15 and conceded five, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +12.
Cancún: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored ten and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Piratas | Cancún |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +12 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLW | WWDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 15 / 5 | 10 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 61.3 | 64.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Piratas 61.3 versus Cancún 64.2, a gap of 2.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Piratas' way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to Piratas at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Piratas or Cancún?
Piratas, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Piratas, 25% the draw and 28% Cancún.
When and where is Piratas vs Cancún being played?
9 November 2026, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
Have Piratas and Cancún met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Piratas and Cancún?
Piratas have taken 10 points from their last five (DWWLW), Cancún 11 from theirs (WWDDW). Most recently Piratas took a 1-1 draw at home to Tapatío and Cancún a 2-0 win at home to CDS Tampico Madero.
How many goals are expected in Piratas vs Cancún?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Piratas and 1.35 for Cancún. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.