Uruguay vs Dominican Republic: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Uruguay the pick at 55% for Uruguay vs Dominican Republic. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Uruguay host Dominican Republic on 17 November 2026. Uruguay are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Uruguay - Dominican Republic. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Uruguay: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored 13 and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Dominican Republic: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded twelve, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Uruguay | Dominican Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLD | WLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 8 | 10 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 18% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.15, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Uruguay's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Uruguay at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Uruguay or Dominican Republic?
Uruguay, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Uruguay, 27% the draw and 18% Dominican Republic.
When and where is Uruguay vs Dominican Republic being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Have Uruguay and Dominican Republic met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Uruguay and Dominican Republic?
Uruguay have taken 7 points from their last five (WWLLD), Dominican Republic 9 from theirs (WLWWL). Most recently Uruguay took a 6-1 win away at India and Dominican Republic a 2-1 win away at Nicaragua.
How many goals are expected in Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.15 — 0.80 for Uruguay and 1.35 for Dominican Republic. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.