Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W match summary and prediction — NWSL Women
Our model makes Washington Spirit W the pick at 43% for Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Portland Thorns W travel to Washington Spirit W on 8 November 2026 at Audi Field. Washington Spirit W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This quarter finals fixture in NWSL Women is listed as Washington Spirit W - Portland Thorns W. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Washington Spirit W: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 22 conceded in 21 matches, 1.43 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +15.
Portland Thorns W: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 25 conceded in 20 matches, 1.6 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.9 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Washington Spirit W | Portland Thorns W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 6th |
| Goal difference | +15 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWL | WWDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.43 / 1.05 | 1.6 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.71 | 1.8 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 53.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 31% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Washington Spirit W one win, Portland Thorns W one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Portland Thorns W 1-2 Washington Spirit W on 06 September 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Washington Spirit W 58.8 versus Portland Thorns W 53.9, a gap of 4.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Washington Spirit W's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Washington Spirit W at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Washington Spirit W's way, especially at Audi Field.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Washington Spirit W or Portland Thorns W?
Washington Spirit W, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Washington Spirit W, 26% the draw and 31% Portland Thorns W.
When and where is Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W being played?
8 November 2026 at Audi Field, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Washington Spirit W and Portland Thorns W?
Portland Thorns W 1-2 Washington Spirit W on 06 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Washington Spirit W and Portland Thorns W?
Washington Spirit W have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWWL), Portland Thorns W 8 from theirs (WWDLD). Most recently Washington Spirit W took a 2-0 win at home to Chicago Red Stars W and Portland Thorns W a 2-0 win away at Houston Dash W.
How many goals are expected in Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.60 for Washington Spirit W and 1.40 for Portland Thorns W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.