El Salvador vs Saint Martin: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes El Salvador the pick at 42% for El Salvador vs Saint Martin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
El Salvador host Saint Martin on 18 November 2026 at Estadio Jorge Gonzalez, San Salvador. El Salvador are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This play In Final fixture in CONCACAF Nations League is listed as El Salvador - Saint Martin. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
El Salvador: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Saint Martin: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored 19 and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | El Salvador | Saint Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLLW | LWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 10 | 19 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 24% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.67, over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans El Salvador's way at 46%.
The call
The model edges towards El Salvador at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts El Salvador's way, especially at Estadio Jorge Gonzalez.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: El Salvador or Saint Martin?
El Salvador, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% El Salvador, 34% the draw and 24% Saint Martin.
When and where is El Salvador vs Saint Martin being played?
18 November 2026 at Estadio Jorge Gonzalez, San Salvador, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between El Salvador and Saint Martin?
Saint Martin 0-2 El Salvador on 13 November 2026.
What is the recent form of El Salvador and Saint Martin?
El Salvador have taken 7 points from their last five (WDLLW), Saint Martin 9 from theirs (LWWLW). Most recently El Salvador took a 2-0 win away at Saint Martin and Saint Martin a 0-2 defeat at home to El Salvador.
How many goals are expected in El Salvador vs Saint Martin?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.67 — 0.67 for El Salvador and 0.00 for Saint Martin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.