Nicaragua vs Montserrat: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Montserrat the pick at 41% for Nicaragua vs Montserrat. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Nicaragua host Montserrat on 18 November 2026. Montserrat are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This play In Final fixture in CONCACAF Nations League is listed as Nicaragua - Montserrat. Kick-off is 03:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Nicaragua: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded 15, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Montserrat: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Nicaragua | Montserrat |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLL | LWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 15 | 12 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 41% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.85, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Montserrat's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Montserrat at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Montserrat's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nicaragua or Montserrat?
Montserrat, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 26% Nicaragua, 33% the draw and 41% Montserrat.
When and where is Nicaragua vs Montserrat being played?
18 November 2026, kick-off 03:00 UTC.
Have Nicaragua and Montserrat met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Nicaragua and Montserrat?
Nicaragua have taken 3 points from their last five (WLLLL), Montserrat 12 from theirs (LWWWW). Most recently Nicaragua took a 2-1 win away at Montserrat and Montserrat a 1-2 defeat at home to Nicaragua.
How many goals are expected in Nicaragua vs Montserrat?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.85 — 0.50 for Nicaragua and 1.35 for Montserrat. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.