Cerro Largo vs Progreso — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Cerro Largo the pick at 48% for Cerro Largo vs Progreso. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Cerro Largo host Progreso on 12 November 2026 at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo. Cerro Largo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This clausura 14 fixture in Primera División is listed as Cerro Largo - Progreso. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cerro Largo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.3 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -8.
Progreso: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -18.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Cerro Largo | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -8 | -18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLDL | LWWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 36.3 | 43.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 20% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Cerro Largo 36.3 versus Progreso 43.8, a gap of 7.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 32% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Cerro Largo's way at 49%.
The call
The model tilts to Cerro Largo at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Progreso's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cerro Largo's way, especially at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cerro Largo or Progreso?
Cerro Largo, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Cerro Largo, 32% the draw and 20% Progreso.
When and where is Cerro Largo vs Progreso being played?
12 November 2026 at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Have Cerro Largo and Progreso met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Cerro Largo and Progreso?
Cerro Largo have taken 4 points from their last five (LWLDL), Progreso 7 from theirs (LWWDL). Most recently Cerro Largo took a 1-3 defeat away at Racing Montevideo and Progreso a 0-2 defeat at home to Defensor Sporting.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.50 for Cerro Largo and 0.50 for Progreso. It rates over 2.5 goals at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.