Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Deportivo Maldonado the pick at 59% for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Maldonado host Cerro on 14 November 2026. Deportivo Maldonado are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This clausura 14 fixture in Primera División is listed as Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Deportivo Maldonado: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +22.
Cerro: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored six and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.3 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -24.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 14th |
| Goal difference | +22 | -24 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWL | LLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.2 | 32.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 19% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportivo Maldonado 57.2 versus Cerro 32.3, a gap of 24.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Deportivo Maldonado's way at 60%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Deportivo Maldonado at 59%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. Deportivo Maldonado's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportivo Maldonado or Cerro?
Deportivo Maldonado, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Deportivo Maldonado, 22% the draw and 19% Cerro.
When and where is Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro?
Deportivo Maldonado have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWWL), Cerro 4 from theirs (LLDWL). Most recently Deportivo Maldonado took a 1-2 defeat at home to Club Nacional and Cerro a 1-2 defeat at home to Central Espanol.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.00 for Cerro. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.