Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Danubio the pick at 40% for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Liverpool Montevideo travel to Danubio on 15 November 2026. Danubio are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This clausura 14 fixture in Primera División is listed as Danubio - Liverpool Montevideo. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Danubio: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.0 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -16.
Liverpool Montevideo: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored seven and conceded one, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.3 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +16.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Danubio | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -16 | +16 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWLW | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 7 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.0 | 72.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Danubio 41.0 versus Liverpool Montevideo 72.3, a gap of 31.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Danubio's way at 46%.
The call
The model edges towards Danubio at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Danubio or Liverpool Montevideo?
Danubio, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Danubio, 30% the draw and 30% Liverpool Montevideo.
When and where is Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo?
Danubio have taken 7 points from their last five (DLWLW), Liverpool Montevideo 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently Danubio took a 1-1 draw away at Lito and Liverpool Montevideo a 1-1 draw at home to Juventud.
How many goals are expected in Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Danubio and 1.00 for Liverpool Montevideo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.