CA La Paz vs Piratas: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes CA La Paz the pick at 42% for CA La Paz vs Piratas. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
CA La Paz face Piratas on 14 November 2026 at Estadio Guaycura, La Paz. CA La Paz are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This semi finals fixture in Liga de Expansión MX is listed as CA La Paz - Piratas. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
CA La Paz: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +18.
Piratas: they come in on three successive draws, following two wins before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | CA La Paz | Piratas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +18 | +12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWD | DDDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 6 | 11 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 62.8 | 61.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: CA La Paz 62.8 versus Piratas 61.3, a gap of 1.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans CA La Paz's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards CA La Paz at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. CA La Paz's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts CA La Paz's way, especially at Estadio Guaycura.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: CA La Paz or Piratas?
CA La Paz, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% CA La Paz, 27% the draw and 31% Piratas.
When and where is CA La Paz vs Piratas being played?
14 November 2026 at Estadio Guaycura, La Paz, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
Have CA La Paz and Piratas met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of CA La Paz and Piratas?
CA La Paz have taken 11 points from their last five (DWWWD), Piratas 9 from theirs (DDDWW). Most recently CA La Paz took a 3-3 draw at home to Tlaxcala and Piratas a 1-1 draw at home to Cancún.
How many goals are expected in CA La Paz vs Piratas?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for CA La Paz and 1.00 for Piratas. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.