Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Monarcas the pick at 46% for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Monarcas travel to Leones Negros UDG on 14 November 2026 at Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara. Monarcas are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This semi finals fixture in Liga de Expansión MX is listed as Leones Negros UDG - Monarcas. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Leones Negros UDG: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +14.
Monarcas: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.4 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Leones Negros UDG | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +14 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWL | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 61.8 | 43.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 46% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Leones Negros UDG 61.8 versus Monarcas 43.4, a gap of 18.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Leones Negros UDG's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Monarcas at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Leones Negros UDG or Monarcas?
Monarcas, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 34% Leones Negros UDG, 20% the draw and 46% Monarcas.
When and where is Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas being played?
14 November 2026 at Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
Have Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas?
Leones Negros UDG have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWWL), Monarcas 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Leones Negros UDG took a 2-1 win at home to Durango and Monarcas a 2-1 win at home to Venados FC.
How many goals are expected in Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.00 for Leones Negros UDG and 2.00 for Monarcas. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.