Italy U21 vs Belgium U21: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Italy U21 the pick at 46% for Italy U21 vs Belgium U21. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Belgium U21 travel to Italy U21 on 16 November 2026. Italy U21 are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Italy U21 - Belgium U21. Kick-off is 17:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Italy U21: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 16 and conceded two, with four clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Belgium U21: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored four and conceded two, with four clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Italy U21 | Belgium U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | DWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 16 / 2 | 4 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Italy U21's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Italy U21 at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Italy U21 or Belgium U21?
Italy U21, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Italy U21, 26% the draw and 29% Belgium U21.
When and where is Italy U21 vs Belgium U21 being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 17:15 UTC.
Have Italy U21 and Belgium U21 met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Italy U21 and Belgium U21?
Italy U21 have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Belgium U21 10 from theirs (DWWLW). Most recently Italy U21 took a 6-2 win at home to Poland U21 and Belgium U21 a 0-0 draw away at Denmark U21.
How many goals are expected in Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Italy U21 and 1.35 for Belgium U21. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.