Iraq vs Iran: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Iran the pick at 45% for Iraq vs Iran. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Iraq host Iran on 17 November 2026. Iran are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Iraq - Iran. Kick-off is 16:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Iraq: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Iran: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three draws before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Iraq | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLL | LLDDD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 13 | 4 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 45% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.50, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Iran's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to Iran at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Iraq or Iran?
Iran, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 24% Iraq, 30% the draw and 45% Iran.
When and where is Iraq vs Iran being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Have Iraq and Iran met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Iraq and Iran?
Iraq have taken 4 points from their last five (LWDLL), Iran 3 from theirs (LLDDD). Most recently Iraq took a 0-2 defeat away at Saudi Arabia and Iran a 0-2 defeat away at Russia.
How many goals are expected in Iraq vs Iran?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.50 — 0.50 for Iraq and 1.00 for Iran. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.